Methodology

T11.11.11 Analysis applies a regime-based, data-driven framework to analyze financial markets.
The objective is not to forecast prices, but to identify market conditions, risk asymmetry, and capital behavior.

Our methodology is designed to answer three core questions:

What market regime are we currently in?
How supportive or restrictive is liquidity?
Where is risk accumulating or being reduced?

1. Market Regime Framework

Markets do not move randomly.
They operate within identifiable regimes driven by liquidity, volatility, and risk appetite.

We classify market environments into three primary regimes:

Risk-on:
Expanding liquidity, improving breadth, declining volatility.
Neutral:
Mixed signals, range-bound behavior, selective opportunities.
Risk-off:
Liquidity contraction, rising volatility, defensive capital flows.

Regime identification provides the context in which all other analysis is interpreted.

2. Z-Score Normalization

To compare data across different assets, timeframes, and market conditions, we apply Z-score normalization.

Z-scores allow us to:

Standardize indicators across history
Identify relative extremes
Detect early regime shifts

This approach reduces noise and emphasizes probabilistic signals rather than absolute levels.

3. Liquidity & Risk Assessment

Liquidity is the primary driver of market cycles.

Our liquidity framework evaluates:

Monetary and financial conditions
Expansion vs contraction dynamics
Stress accumulation in funding and volatility

Risk is assessed through:

Volatility behavior
Correlation shifts
Breadth deterioration
Divergences between price and participation

This combination helps identify hidden fragility before it appears in price.

4. Rotation & Capital Flow Analysis

Price alone does not reveal where capital is moving.

We focus on:

Sector rotation patterns
Relative strength vs benchmark
Institutional money flow characteristics

Rotation analysis helps determine:

Which areas lead or lag
Whether trends are broad or concentrated
Sustainability of market advances or declines

Capital behavior often precedes price confirmation.

5. Vietnam & Global Integration

Local markets do not operate in isolation.

Our framework explicitly integrates:

Global equity indices
FX and interest rates
Commodity and crypto liquidity signals

Global conditions often define the risk ceiling for domestic markets, including Vietnam.

6. Research Philosophy

Our approach is guided by three principles:

Context over prediction
Risk management over return maximization
Consistency over complexity

We aim to provide clarity, not certainty.

Disclaimer

All content on this website is for research and educational purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset.